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2016 San Antonio, TX Super Regional


Prelims Results:
(view full recap here)

Class A
1. Saint James School, AL
2. Hidalgo, TX
3. Jourdanton, TX

Music: Saint James School, AL
Visual: Hidalgo, TX
GE: Saint James School, AL

Class AA
1. Roma H.S., TX
2. Lubbock-Cooper H.S., TX
3. Calallen H.S., TX

Music: Roma H.S., TX
Visual: Roma H.S., TX
GE: Roma H.S., TX

Class AAA
1. Leander H.S., TX
2. Cedar Park H.S., TX
3. Wakeland H.S., TX

Music: Leander H.S., TX
Visual: Leander H.S., TX
GE: Leander H.S., TX

Class AAAA
1. Flower Mound H.S., TX
2. The Woodlands H.S., TX
3. Vandegrift H.S., TX

Music: Flower Mound H.S., TX
Visual: Flower Mound H.S., TX
GE: The Woodlands H.S., TX

Finals Results:
(view full recap here)

1. (93.30) Flower Mound H.S., TX
2. (92.15) The Woodlands H.S., TX
3. (90.85) Leander H.S., TX
4. (89.70) Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
5. (89.65) Hebron H.S., TX
6. (89.60) Marcus H.S., TX
7. (89.30)Vandegrift H.S., TX
8. (88.25) Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
9. (87.65) Cedar Park H.S., TX
10. (85.90) Round Rock H.S., TX
11. (84.90) Winston Churchill H.S., TX
12. (84.20) Hendrickson H.S., TX
13. (83.80) Keller H.S., TX
14. (82.40) Cypress Falls H.S., TX

Music: Flower Mound H.S., TX
Visual: Flower Mound H.S., TX
GE: Flower Mound H.S., TX

Participating Bands (63):
Aledo H.S., TX
Alvin H.S., TX
Anderson H.S., TX
Azle H.S., TX
Calallen H.S., TX
Cedar Park H.S., TX
Cedar Ridge H.S., TX
Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
Colleyville Heritage H.S., TX
Cypress Falls H.S., TX
Dripping Springs H.S., TX
Earl Warren H.S., TX
Flower Mound H.S., TX
Fredericksburg H.S., TX
Friendswood H.S., TX
George Ranch H.S., TX
Hebron H.S., TX
Hendrickson H.S., TX
Hidalgo H.S., TX
Jack C. Hays H.S., TX
James Madison H.S., TX
James Martin H.S., TX
Jourdanton H.S., TX
Juarez-Lincoln H.S., TX
Judson H.S., TX
Katy H.S., TX
Keller Central H.S., TX
Keller H.S., TX
Klein Forest H.S., TX
Lake Travis H.S., TX
LD Bell H.S., TX
Leander H.S., TX
Lehman H.S., TX
Lubbock-Cooper H.S., TX
Lyndon B. Johnson H.S., TX
Marcus H.S., TX
Oak Ridge H.S., TX
Odem H.S., TX
Palmview H.S., TX
Pearland H.S., TX
Pflugerville H.S., TX
Plano East H.S., TX
Prosper H.S., TX
Robert E. Lee H.S., TX
Roma H.S., TX
Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
Round Rock H.S., TX
Rouse H.S., TX
Saint James School, AL
Sandra Day O'Connor H.S., TX
The Woodlands College Park H.S., TX
The Woodlands H.S., TX
Tompkins H.S., TX
United H.S., TX
United South H.S., TX
Vandegrift H.S., TX
Veterans Memorial H.S., TX
Vista Ridge H.S., TX
Wakeland H.S., TX
Waller H.S., TX
Westlake H.S., TX
Westwood H.S., TX
Winston Churchill H.S., TX

Returning 2015 Finalists (12):
1. Flower Mound H.S., TX
2. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
3. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
4. Hebron H.S., TX
5. Cedar Park H.S., TX
6. Marcus H.S., TX
7. The Woodlands H.S., TX
9. Round Rock H.S., TX
10. Vandegrift H.S., TX
12. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX 13. Keller H.S., TX 14. Wakeland HS, TX

Previous Champions:
2015: Flower Mound H.S., TX
2014: Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
2013: The Woodlands H.S., TX
2012: Marcus H.S., TX
2011: LD Bell H.S., TX

States Represented (2):
Alabama and Texas.

About
The 2016 San Antonio Super Regional will be held Nov. 4–5 at the Alamodome. In 2015, after a hectic prelims competition with many rain delays and schedule changes, Flower Mound won the finals competition over Ronald Reagan and Claudia Taylor Johnson, two groups that beat FloMo in prelims.

Analysis
Twelve returning finalists.

That might make you think there are two open spots, but there aren't. When you factor in Leander and Hendrickson, which were unable to compete in 2015 because of weather-related issues, and LD Bell, which placed second at the Atlanta Super Regional, there are significantly more groups that deserve a finals spot than there are finals spots available.

The potentially over-hyped front runner

Flower Mound (TX) performs at the Plano Regional
on Oct. 8, 2016. // Photo by Jeremiah Wooten.
Flower Mound could complete their second season of winning every BOA event they attend, if they win this weekend. In 2015, they placed first at the Arlington Regional and the San Antonio Super Regional. This year, they've already won the Plano Regional by a huge margin. I'm serious. No other group was even close to Flower Mound, and I can't see anyone being able to catch them.

The groups that could catch FloMo

There are really only two groups that could possibly steal the title from Flower Mound, and it won't be an easy task.

Ronald Reagan placed first at Conroe earlier this season. They earned second place at last year's San Antonio Super Regional, so it's very possible that they could steal the champion title from FloMo this year. Reagan will have a busy week of band as they are competing at the super regional, the UIL State Championships, and the Grand National Championships within seven days. A good performance here at San Antonio could set them up for a national title the next weekend.

Vandegrift went from two years of placing 10th at San Antonio, to being in contention for the title. They're really pushing this year, taking some risks, and are being rewarded for it, starting with a victory at the Austin Regional. Maybe they'll eventually decide to go to Grand Nats, so the rest of the country can be blessed by their presence.

The strong core

Texas is full of so many talented groups, it's really impossible to guess how these middle pack of groups will place.

Cedar Park finished fourth at the Austin Regional and fifth place at last year's San Antonio. The band is headed to Grand Nats, so this isn't the end of their season. And since they're 5A in UIL, Cedar Park doesn't have to worry about a state competition right before they head off to Indianapolis.

Claudia Taylor Johnson got third at the Austin Regional and second at the Conroe Regional. Their show is a band nerd's dream, incorporating excerpts from the world's best judge's tape. Although we don't have them in the running for the champion title, it's not out of the question. CTJ was the 2014 San Antonio champion and won the prelims competition just last season.

Hebron gets to add their name to the list of bands that inspired a BOA rule change, after winning Grand National Semifinals, but earning third in finals, supposedly because of their first-on performance slot. So far this year, they've earned third place at the Plano Regional and we'll see if this top-half, bottom-half draw for finals performance slots will help them out this year. Though I will say, fourth at San Antonio and third at Grand Nats is not a record to be ashamed of.

LD Bell took fourth place at the Plano Regional and will be returning to the San Antonio Regional after taking a trip to Atlanta last year. At Atlanta, they received second place behind Tarpon Springs, but all super regionals are not created equal and even placing in the top half is going to be a challenge.

Leander won prelims at the Austin Regional by about 2 points, but ultimately took home second place in finals. Not too shabby for a group that can consistently hang with some of the best bands in the nation. They're heading to Indy next week for Grand Nats and will certainly be in discussion for a class AAA medal, if not a class champion position.

Marcus (TX) performs at the Plano Regional
on Oct. 8, 2016. // Photo by Jeremiah Wooten
Marcus is really good this year. They always sound incredible, but this year, they're bringing along a visual package that is really captivating. Although they earned lower placements than they usually do at this weekend's UIL Area competition, they have an excellent show this year and have already earned second place at the Plano Regional earlier this season.

Round Rock took home seventh place from last year's Grand Nats after finishing ninth at San Antonio. This year, they've continued to compete at a high level, placing fifth at Austin.

The Woodlands placed third at the Conroe Regional. Last year, the group took home seventh at San Antonio and sixth at Grand Nats. This year, they had some rather shocking UIL Area results, placing behind several groups we aren't used to seeing in front of the former national champion. Some of that can be blamed on the classic craziness of the UIL adjudication system, but some can not.

Upper bubble

I'm not sure which bubble is crazier: San Antonio or Grand Nats. Fortunately, San Antonio has 14 finals spots instead of 12, so it’s slightly less impossible to make the cut off.

Hendrickson was unfortunately unable to compete at San Antonio last year because of weather-related issues. But this year, they've already taken home eighth place at Austin, then fourth at Conroe. We're expecting big things from the Hawk Band this year, but no group is guaranteed a finals spot.

James Martin has made huge strides this year, placing seventh at the Plano Regional after both missing finals at Arlington and placing 31st at San Antonio last year. It would be awesome to end this exciting year with an appearance in super regional finals, and we think, theoretically, this is just the show to help push them over the top.

Keller took home 11th place at Grand Nats last year, but it's pretty well accepted than any San Antonio finalist can make Grand National finals. Earlier this year, they earned sixth place at Plano.

Vista Ridge earned sixth place at the Austin Regional. Although they placed 20th at last year's San Antonio Super Regional, they seem to be taking a whole new approach and are really having a great season.

Winston Churchill will complete their huge BOA Texas tour at San Antonio this year. They've already competed at three of four regionals in the state, making finals each time, and what better way to end the season with a pair of performances at San Antonio. First they earned seventh place at the Austin Regional, then fifth place at the Conroe Regional, and finally eighth at the Plano Regional. Last year, they grabbed seventh place at the Atlanta Super Regional, but even just getting 14th at San Antonio is a difficult task.

Lower bubble

Cedar Ridge earned 12th place at San Antonio last year, but with the overwhelming number of new and improved bands competing this year, their 10th place finish at the Austin Regional won't guarantee them a spot in finals.

Cypress Falls took home sixth place at the Atlanta Super Regional last year, but San Antonio is a whole different beast. Making finals here will be a much tougher task.

Friendswood has to be included as a possibility because they were the first group out of finals last year. This year, they have a lot of ground they'll need to make up after taking 19th place at Conroe.

The Woodlands College Park has had some drastic swings in placements over the past few years. When they placed 14th at Conroe last year, they took 18th place at San Antonio. If you do the math, that means their sixth place finish at Conroe this year should earn them a finals spot at San Antonio, right? We'll find out this weekend.

Wakeland took home 14th place at San Antonio last year. This year, they were the first band out of finals at the Plano Regional. Although we were happy to see Waxahachie make finals in Plano, it was sad to see a great group like Wakeland not performing in finals.

Westlake was just two spots out of finals at San Antonio last year, placing 16th overall in prelims. This year, they've earned ninth place at the Austin Regional and have a shot to be performing in Saturday night.

This was not fun to predict

There are so many groups here that would easily be making finals if they went to any other super regional in the country. San Antonio has been and continues to be the most competitive event right up there with Grand Nats.

We'll be in San Antonio the whole weekend, so make sure to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram for live updates throughout the weekend. We can't wait to see how the results play out!

Predictions
1. Flower Mound H.S., TX
2. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
3. Vandegrift H.S., TX
4. Cedar Park H.S., TX
5. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
6. Hebron H.S., TX
7. Leander H.S., TX
8. Marcus H.S., TX
9. LD Bell H.S., TX
10. Round Rock H.S., TX
11. The Woodlands H.S., TX
12. Keller H.S., TX
13. Hendrickson H.S., TX
14. Vista Ridge H.S., TX

Adjudication Panel
Prelims Music: Wayne Dillon, Martin Griffin, Chuck Naffier, and David Orser.
Prelims Visual: Michael Gray, Jim Sturgeon, and Michael Turner.
Finals Music: George Boulden, Darrin Davis, Nola Jones, and Matt McCready.
Finals Visual: Lee Carlson, Adam Sage, and Robert Solomon.
Chief: Richard Saucedo.

11 comments:

  1. I don't really see the logic in ranking cedar park that far above leander when leander beat them hand over fist in both rounds of Austin...I also just don't see leander that low at all.

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  2. Round Rock placed 5th at Austin,not Conroe.

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  3. This is the first set of predictions you guys have that i think will not even be close to the true rankings. Seriously, there is no way Leander is getting 7th, that is really low when they beat cedar park by nearly 2 points at austin. CTJ also beat Cedar park at austin then during prelims of conroe, they lost to reagan by only .2. I understand how hard this was to predict but having some bands in the places you guys have them is truly odd. I do think that this is also the most unpredictable event of the year though so who knows.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, it's really tough to make predictions for an event like this. I would say there's a margin of error of about 4 or 5 placements in either direction for most of these groups. Vandegrift beat Leander at Austin and Cedar Park barely beat Vandy at Texas Marching Classic. From my understanding, we've only seen Leander and Vandy compete head-to-head at UIL.

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  4. Welp now my entire band is going to notice this because of my name rip.

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  5. I agree with your groupings and I agree that within each grouping it's basically a crap shoot. SA is most definitely hard to predict. There are usually fewer surprises than at UIL, but surprises come with a 64 band competition. And don't read too much into this past weekend's UIL AREA event - many surprises every year - judging criteria is much different than BOA. Your point about SA being as competitive is GN is right-on. 2015 results: Hebron SA:4th GN:3rd. Woodlands SA:7th GN:6th. Round Rock SA:9th GN:7th. Keller SA:13th GN:11. Keller Central SA:24th GN:22nd. Each band moved up at GN compared to their finish in SA. If you look at 2015 Indy Super Regional, for example, Avon Indy:1st GN:2nd. Carmel Indy:2nd GN:5th. Marion Catholic Indy:3rd GN:8th. Blue Springs Indy:4th GN:10th. Homestead Indy:5th GN:12th. Each band moved down at GN compared to their finish at Indy. It doesn't mean it will happen that way again this year. These are all great bands and all deserving. But SA is no doubt the toughest contest in the nation. I'm taking bandages, sponges and medical tape - it's going to be a blood bath. Then just 3 days later, right after all the blood gets cleaned up, the Alamodome will host 6A UIL STATE. 40 of the best bands in Texas will compete in a 2-day prelims/finals contest to vie for the STATE title. Blood bath round 2. Then those bands heading to GN will board a plane to Indy - 7 potential competition performances in 8 days. WOW.

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  6. Predicting this event is essentially a guessing game with the amount of good bands and the level they all perform at. The final results will almost come down to whichever band has the best run or whichever happens to have that one bad run and gets beat out. It is a blood bath and most of those finalists bands could end up anywhere in finals (in my opinion)

    ReplyDelete