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2015 Atlanta, GA Super Regional



Finals Results
(view full recap here)

1. (94.55) Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
2. (90.90) LD Bell H.S., TX
3. (88.85) Harrison H.S., GA
4. (86.60) Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
5. (86.50) Fort Mill H.S., SC
6. (85.55) Cypress Falls H.S., TX
7. (85.10) Winston Churchill H.S., TX
8. (84.10) Walton H.S., GA
9. (84.00) Westwood H.S., TX
10. (82.25) Wando H.S., SC
11. (81.90) Clements H.S., TX
12. (80.55) Centerville H.S., OH

Music: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
Visual: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
GE: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL

Prelims Results:
(view full recap here)

Class A
1. Saint James School, AL
2. Seymour H.S., TN
3. Mount Pleasant H.S., NC

Music: Seymour H.S., TN
Visual: Seymour H.S., TN
GE: Saint James School, AL

Class AA
1. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
2. Grain Valley H.S., MO
3. Morton H.S., IL

Music: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
Visual: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
GE: Tarpon Springs H.S., FL

Class AAA
1. Harrison H.S., GA
2. Fort Mill H.S., SC
3. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN

Music: Fort Mill H.S., SC
Visual: Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
GE: Harrison H.S., GA

Class AAAA
1. LD Bell H.S., TX
2. Winston Churchill H.S., TX
3. Cypress Falls H.S., TX

Music: LD Bell H.S., TX
Visual: LD Bell H.S., TX
GE: LD Bell H.S., TX
About
The 2015 Atlanta Super Regional was held Oct. 30–31 at the Georgia Dome. Tarpon Springs was the clear victor, with an almost four point gap between Tarpon and second-place LD Bell.

Analysis
This year's Atlanta Super Regional was one of the most diverse events of the 2015 season. While Tarpon Springs winning was no surprise, the number of Texas bands that travelled all the way to Atlanta instead of competing in San Antonio was a big surprise.

We were not surprised to see Dobyns-Bennett, Fort Mill, and Harrison right next to each other in the final placements. These three Class AAA groups have had excellent seasons the past three years and are showing you don't have to be in Class AAAA to compete. In prelims, each of these groups won a caption in class in prelims.

Pre-Competition Analysis and Predictions
This year's Atlanta Super Regional looks like it could be the most regionally diverse competition this season. with bands from Texas to Florida and from Missouri to Maryland all in attendance.

The Champion (1st place)
The clear favorite is Tarpon Springs, who needs no explanation. They are clean, precise, and sound like a symphony even while moving. They are creative and extravagant, and the nature of their program lets them do practically whatever they want, however they want to do it. You can't enjoy marching band and not enjoy Tarpon Springs, gigantic treadmill-powered globes included. Oh and they also won grand nationals last year. No big deal.

The Nationalists (2nd-4th places)
All three groups in this category have been in the finals competition of the Grand National Championships in recent history. Only one of them will be attending this year, but for the other two, this is their chance to prove how they stack up against bands who compete on a national level.

Last year, Harrison and Wando placed third and fourth, respectively, but this year could be different. William Mason is not competing at the Atlanta regional this year, so Harrison and Wando have the opportunity to shift up a spot; however, there's also a chance for LD Bell to take Mason's spot.

Under the direction of Bobby Lambert, Wando had an incredible season in 2014, and we only expect improvement in the 2015 season. Unfortunately, they had to pull out of the Jacksonville Regional earlier this year because of the flooding in South Carolina, so this will be their BOA premiere and we can't wait to see the show.

After losing to Fort Mill at the Power Springs Regional, there was much speculation about the current status of the Harrison band. It's not unusual for Harrison to lost an early season regional, in fact, out of the past four year, Harrison has placed second in at least one round of competition at four of the five early season regionals they've participated in. Every year, they've showed incredible strides of improvement by the time Atlanta comes around, and we expect nothing different from this at this year's competition.

It's strange to see LD Bell traveling such a long distance to compete at Atlanta when the San Antonio Super Regional is happening simultaneously, much closer to home. If they're planning on returning to Grand Nats in 2016 or 2017, ten years after their Grand National Champion season of 2007, placing well at a super regional is a great first step.

The Middle of the Pack (5th-9th places)
Fifth place seems to be Dobyns-Bennett, a program coming off a great year, even if it was somewhat controversial and melodramatic. There’s no denying that this band is becoming a powerhouse, however, and they will look to improve on their surprisingly fantastic finish at Grand Nationals.

Centerville, Cypress Falls, East Coweta, and Fort Mill are all groups who could round out the middle of the pack and even steal that fifth place spot from DB.

Centerville competed at the Dayton Regional earlier this season and placed fourth. This group has a long history of successful performances in Grand Nats semis and we expect a spot in the middle of Atlanta finals to be easily attainable.

Cypress Falls finished fifth at the Conroe Regional, placing behind some really great Texas bands.

East Coweta improved over 13 points in just one week, going from a 65.20 at Powder Springs to a 78.85 at Jacksonville. We know you can't directly compare scores from different competitions, but their second place finish at Jacksonville is a good sign.

Fort Mill had an exciting start to the season, beating Harrison, then placing third at the Winston-Salem Regional behind Dobyns Bennett and Nation Ford. While some expect that to catapult them up to the top half of finals, we expect them to stay right here in the middle.

The Last Few Spots (10th-16th places)
After ninth place, it seems to be anyone's game, with at least seven groups fighting for the last three spots in finals.

Winston Churchill, from Texas, will be in the conversation for one of these last few finals spots. If results from Texas regionals provide an accurate estimate (although they normally don't), then Winston Churchill could be expected to score just a few points behind Cypress Falls and could find themselves in the middle.

Panther Creek was a surprise success last year, and they seem to be having a good season so far this year, placing third behind Nation Ford at Winston Salem.

Hillgrove had a great start to the season, placing third just behind East Coweta at the Jacksonville Regional. If they can catch up with East Coweta, they could easily find themselves towards the middle of finals.

If Father Ryan can stop their free fall from a level of true national competition, they could be in these last few spots of finals.

James Madison placed second at the Newark Regional two weeks ago and will be looking to secure on of these last few spots.

Walton and Mill Creek are two other solid Georgia bands that made finals at this contest last year and could be expected to do so once more.

Grain Valley will travel all the way from Missouri to participate, and will try to ride their success from St. Louis last year into success in Atlanta, though their trip to St. Louis this year did not yield the same results.

Ordinal Predictions
  1. Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
  2. Wando H.S., SC
  3. Harrison H.S., GA
  4. LD Bell H.S., TX
  5. Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
  6. Centerville H.S., OH
  7. Cypress Falls H.S., TX
  8. East Coweta H.S., GA
  9. Fort Mill H.S., SC
  10. Winston Churchill H.S., TX
  11. Panther Creek H.S., NC
  12. Hillgrove H.S, GA
Next five (alphabetically): Father Ryan H.S., TN; Grain Valley H.S., MO; James Madison H.S., VA; Mill Creek H.S., GA; and Walton H.S., GA

23 comments:

  1. Tarpon Springs beat William Mason by 5 points in 2015? I think you meant 2014.

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  2. Part of the point jump was due to Tarpon performing early while being very well known by all at Atl, therefore they were given a high score to begin with. I thought all bands did very well though and I'm looking forward to this year.

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  3. There are several bands who could come up out of nowhere this year for finals. I'd look for Hoover and Father Ryan.

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    1. Father Ryan made finals in 2013 so I wouldn't be surprised but a band that could score really high is cypress falls. Top 5 in a Texas regional is no joke

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    2. Father Ryan also made finals in 2014. Still, I could see them easily miss the finals cutoff this year.

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  4. Any thoughts on East Coweta? They made 2nd in finals with a power outage, even though Wando was unable to attend. I was Honestly excited to see them. And like everyone else, can't wait to see tarpon.

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    1. I think East Coweta can be a potential finalist, especially if they ride their Jacksonville high through the season.

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  5. I'm ready for L.D. Bell to make a dramatic comeback. After seeing all the bands at the Arlington Regional, there wasn't any band that moved as much as Bell did, and at such a bright tempo.

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  6. Any thoughts on Hickory? 2011 8th place in indianapolis 2012 13th in Atlanta and 2013 13th place in Indianapolis. Im expecting them to make a run for finals soon enough

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  7. Any thoughts on McEachern, they're having a FANTASTIC season this year , placed very well at both BOA competitions already attended and could potentially pull a finals spot. Any thoughts?

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  8. Any thoughts on McEachern, they're having a FANTASTIC season this year , placed very well at both BOA competitions already attended and could potentially pull a finals spot. Any thoughts?

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  9. Any opinions on Westwood? While they used to be a pretty terrible band, in recent years, they have been performing quite respectable, placing 13th in the State. They seem like they might be a Wildcard, but hey, who know?

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  10. I think the list of bands competing for finals is solid, though I might tack on McEachern, Hoover, and James Madison. There are just a few things that would really shock me if they happened as predicted, though. First, I don't think East Coweta will be able to overcome their 8+ point deficit to Fort Mill at Powder Springs. Although both are very good bands who have undoubtedly improved a lot, I don't see Fort Mill placing below 7th, nor do I see EC above 10th, although I'll certainly be rooting for them to do as well as possible. Also, it would greatly surprise me if Mill Creek missed finals. They were very good last year, and though I haven't seen them this year they are most definitely a program on the rise.

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    1. Powder Springs was a long time ago. Think about the (more recent) Jacksonville and Winston-Salem regionals. I'd say EC has a pretty good shot at finals, and a chance at beating Fort Mill. East Coweta has been within 3 points of (nationally ranked) Kennesaw Mountain.
      I do agree with you when you say McEachern, James Madison, and Hoover should be included as possibilities. I feel that Hoover might need some help, though.

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    2. Don't get me wrong, I also think East Coweta will be in finals. And yes, I'd say they've got a chance at placing ahead of FM with a knockout performance. I understand that a lot has changed since Powder Springs. However, I am not too deterred by the result of the other regionals; although Kennesaw Mountain is still definitely worthy of being considered a national power, in my personal opinion Dobyns-Bennett (whom FM was within just a few points of at Winston-Salem) is at about the same level. Also (and I know this is not as relevant of a stastic, but it's still interesting to consider), let's not forget that last year FM was within just a twentieth of a point of Kennesaw at Jacksonville.
      As for Hoover, I think a likely outcome is a placement in the 15-20 range, but who knows? They've improved greatly in the last few years, and with an outstanding performance they might be able to squeeze in. In the next few years, at least, I think they'll become a solid finalist.

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  11. You guys are truly clueless and your predictions have been way off base this year because you go with the safe bets and do not give any room for up and coming bands. Centerville competed at Dayton BOA already this year and they finished 4th in prelims and Finals were cancelled. You cant use Powder Springs as an accurate gauge given the weather circumstances of that day and the fact finals were cancelled. You predictions are a great source of amusement for me and that is what this should be viewed as

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    1. I'm glad you don't take predictions seriously. Predictions are just guesses made with a little bit of research and a lot of watching videos. No one can have any idea of how results will turn out until after all prelims performances are completed. Also, do you think we're using Powder Springs as a gauge of these groups? If you read any of our comments on East Coweta, Fort Mill, or Harrison, it's pretty clear that we aren't.

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  12. I can't believe it's almost been 10 years since L.D. Bell won Grand Nats... I'm old now :)

    Matt Longworth
    Brass Captain 2007 L.D. Bell HS

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    1. That show was magical. And it's used as inspiration for the Bell band to this day. Thanks for being awesome.

      Brandon Bingham
      Brass Captain 2015 L.D. Bell HS

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    2. Wow, that's cool. I had the privilege of seeing LD Bell in finals in Atlanta, and you guys were just fantastic. Really all the Texas bands were amazing (big surprise). The "Texas Sound" is a very, very real thing.

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