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2016 Indianapolis, IN Super Regional


Prelims Results:
(view full recap here)

Class A
1. Murray H.S., KY
2. Wellston H.S., OH
3. Orleans Jr./Sr. H.S., IN

Music: Murray H.S., KY
Visual: Murray H.S., KY
GE: Murray H.S., KY

Class AA
1. Marian Catholic H.S., IL
2. North Hardin H.S., KY
3. Russell County H.S., KY

Music: Marian Catholic H.S., IL
Visual: Marian Catholic H.S., IL
GE: Marian Catholic H.S., IL

Class AAA
1. Castle H.S., IN
2. DeSoto Central H.S., MS
3. Norwin H.S., PA

Music: Castle H.S., IN
Visual: Castle H.S., IN
GE: Castle H.S., IN

Class AAAA
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Blue Springs H.S., MO
3. Carmel H.S., IN

Music: Avon H.S., IN
Visual: Avon H.S., IN
GE: Avon H.S., IN

Finals Results:
(view full recap here)

1. (94.15) Avon H.S., IN
2. (93.75) Carmel H.S., IN
3. (89.45) Homestead H.S., IN
4. (89.35) Marian Catholic H.S., IL
5. (89.10) Blue Springs H.S., MO
6. (87.30) Centerville H.S., OH
7. (87.30) Castle H.S., IN
8. (86.85) North Hardin H.S., KY
9. (86.20) Center Grove H.S., IN
10. (85.50) Lawrence Township H.S., IN
11. (83.05) Brownsburg H.S., IN
12. (82.60) Russell County H.S., KY
13. (80.95) Fishers H.S., IN
14. (80.70) Ben Davis H.S., IN

Participating Bands (55):
Avon H.S., IN
Avon H.S., OH
Bellbrook H.S., OH
Ben Davis H.S., IN
Bloomington North H.S., IN
Blue Springs H.S., MO
Blythewood H.S., SC
Brownsburg H.S., IN
Carmel H.S., IN
Carroll H.S., IN
Castle H.S., IN
Cedar Rapids Jefferson H.S., IA
Centennial H.S., TN
Center Grove H.S., IN
Centerville H.S., OH
Decatur Central H.S., IN
DeSoto Central H.S., MS
Downers Grove South H.S., IL
Farragut H.S., TN
Fishers H.S., IN
Floyd Central H.S., IN
Franklin Central H.S., IN
Homestead H.S., IN
Jeffersonville H.S., IN
Kettering Fairmont H.S., OH
Lake Central H.S., IN
Lake Park H.S., IL
Lawrence Township H.S., IN
Leo H.S., IN
Lincoln-Way H.S., IL
Lindbergh H.S., MO
Lockport Township H.S., IL
Madison Central H.S., KY
Marian Catholic H.S., IL
Meade County H.S., KY
Milford H.S., OH
Murray H.S., KY
Naperville Central H.S., IL
North Hardin H.S., KY
North Harrison H.S., IN
Norwin H.S., PA
Orleans H.S., IN
Owen Valley H.S., IN
Plainfield H.S., IN
Plainfield North H.S., IL
Providence Catholic H.S., IL
Rockwood Summit H.S., MO
Russell County H.S., KY
Station Camp H.S., TN
Terre Haute South Vigo H.S., IN
Turpin H.S., OH
Victor J. Andrew H.S., IL
Walnut Hills H.S., OH
Wellston H.S., OH
Wilmington H.S., OH

Returning 2015 Finalists (11):
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. Marian Catholic H.S., IL
4. Blue Springs H.S., MO
5. Homestead H.S., IN
6. Castle H.S., IN
8. Lake Central H.S., IN
9. Lawrence Township H.S., IN
10. Center Grove H.S., IN
12. Ben Davis H.S., IN
14. Carroll H.S., IN

Previous Champions:
2015: Avon H.S., IN
2014: Avon H.S., IN
2013: Carmel H.S., IN
2012: Avon H.S., IN
2011: Avon H.S., IN

States Represented (10):
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
About
The 2016 Indianapolis Super Regional will be held Nov. 4–5 at Lucas Oil Stadium. In 2015, Avon won a huge victory over perennial national finalists Carmel and Marian Catholic.

Analysis
The Indianapolis Super Regional will be action-packed as always in 2016. Although it’s use as a direct predictor of Grand Nationals may be diminished this year because of the low number of groups competing at both Indy Super and Grand Nats, it will be no less important to the bands who participate.

At the top

Avon and Carmel make up the top tier yet again. As two of the most well respected and successful bands in the country, it should come as no surprise that they top our list by a fair margin. Their scores on the Indiana state circuit so far this year have been very tight, but Avon has slowly pulled ahead the last few weeks.

Blue Springs (MO) performs at the Golden Regiment
Invitational on Oct. 1, 2016. // Photo by Jeremiah Wooten
Blue Springs is the only other band we could see potentially competing with the two Indiana titans. It’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that they beats either or take any captions, but the fact that we aren’t willing to put all our eggs in one basket and say it’s completely impossible shows just how far this program has come in just a few show years.

The next five

Marian Catholic may be the hardest band to predict in the country. Are they good? Yes, one of the greatest programs to ever exist. Do they score well before the end of the season? Not usually. Fortunately for them, Indianapolis is only a week before Grand Nats this year, so we should be entering the “here comes Marian Catholic” home stretch. For this reason, fourth seems about right.

Castle performs at the Clarksville Regional
on Sept. 24 2016. // Photo by Jeremiah Wooten
Castle and Homestead have been neck and neck at state circuit competitions this year and there is no reason to expect something different this weekend. Castle has been extremely impressive all year, starting with their win at Clarksville, and although Homestead has seen their scores go down over the past few years, they still perform at an extremely high level. The results at this contest should be extremely helpful in predicting both programs’ placements at Grand Nats.

Center Grove has consistently beaten Lawrence Township and other really good Indiana groups, but has also finished significantly behind Castle and Homestead so far this year. We see no reason that should change here.

North Hardin is a very solid program and although their placement at Clarksville was not quite as impressive as we had hoped for, they tend to improve towards the end of the year, as many good bands do, making them a fairly easy choice for a finals spot.

Eight bands for six spots

The bottom end of this year’s competition is considerably less clear than the top. There seems to be eight bands jockeying for a place in finals, with some being much more likely to make it than others.

Brownsburg is a program on the up and up. After adding former Broken Arrow assistant director Chris Kaflik to their staff, they’ve created a show unlike anything they've done before. It's paying off with really impressive placements throughout the season. However, a finals spot isn't guaranteed. They're going to need to really keep pushing to make it a reality.

Carroll just barely sneaked into finals last year and it’s possible they do the same again. However, their recent placements have not been as high as some of the other bands in this grouping, so we aren’t too high on their chances.

Centerville did well at the Dayton regional early this year, and though a lot can change in a few weeks, it is difficult to imagine them missing finals. If they do miss finals, it would not be the first time. In 2014, they had similar early season success, but was unable to secure a finals spot at Indy Super. A lot can happen in a few weeks.

Fishers has been impressive so far in their return to the BOA circuit, placing fifth at Dayton. We didn’t give them much thought at the beginning of the year but now they’ve proved us wrong and set themselves up to have a great shot at sneaking into finals on Saturday.

Lawrence Township has been consistently in finals at Indy Super since their creation in 2014. Although they have since struggled to make finals at Grand Nats, this season, they have continued to perform among the best bands in Indiana each week.

Lincoln-Way is in their first year of existence, after following in Lawrence Township's footsteps by creating an all-district band. Earlier this season, they've been able to hold their own against some great Illinois groups like Prospect. If they're able to grab this last spot in finals, that would be a great ending to a season full of firsts.

Madison Central is one of the best bands in Kentucky, consistently challenging and even defeating North Hardin at state championships. However, there is a difference between KMEA and BOA adjudication, so it's hard to guess exactly how they will place. Regardless, we're excited to see how Madison Central does this weekend.

Norwin is our final band in consideration for a finals spot, and while it’s easy to see why, it’s difficult to judge exactly how they will place. They’ve had what could be seen as down years recently, but this year's show and early season win at Monroeville seem to be putting them back on the right track. As one of the most storied programs in the country, it’s hard to count them out of anything, but this will be the toughest competition they’ve faced this year. Hopefully they can take the opportunity to make a statement.

Predictions
1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Carmel H.S., IN
3. Blue Springs H.S., MO
4. Marian Catholic H.S., IL
5. Homestead H.S., IN
6. Castle H.S., IN
7. Center Grove H.S., IN
8. North Hardin H.S., KY
9. Brownsburg H.S., IN
10. Lawrence Township H.S., IN
11. Norwin H.S., PA
12. Madison Central H.S., KY
13. Centerville H.S., OH
14. Fishers H.S., IN

Adjudication Panel
Music: Ed Argenziano, Carl Bly, Levi Chavis, Jay Kennedy, Allan Kristensen, Ronnie Rios, Ken Turner, and Bill Watson.
Visual: William Chumley, John Howell, Bruce Jones, Kyle Miller, Randy Nelson, and Michael Stone.
Chief: Gary Markham.

10 comments:

  1. If I were an analyst, I would forget everything I knew about Kettering Fairmont HS going into this year and consider them a possible dark horse for this competitoion. Can't believe how much better they are this year compared to previous years.

    ReplyDelete
  2. cant wait for grand nationals this year

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  3. Your analysis was incomplete you missed one regular finalist, Lake Central they are always there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have in the past, but this year Lake Central has not been doing very well.

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    2. Yeah they haven't missed them, it's just that to say Lake Central is having a tough year would be a massive understatement. Same with Ben Davis.

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    3. I see now that they had a director change, didn't know that.

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  4. What's your justification for Marian?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From the preview: "Marian Catholic may be the hardest band to predict in the country. Are they good? Yes, one of the greatest programs to ever exist. Do they score well before the end of the season? Not usually. Fortunately for them, Indianapolis is only a week before Grand Nats this year, so we should be entering the “here comes Marian Catholic” home stretch. For this reason, fourth seems about right."

      Delete
    2. Can't forget that Marian actually won Music here last year. Marian cannot be counted out.

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  5. I just want to throw in that the "avon has slowly pulled ahead the past few weeks" against Carmel is quite false, and in fact the gap between them has actually gotten much smaller, from 1 whole point to .6 to .4.

    ReplyDelete